Summary
The bringing close together of the contraband swan refers to the fact that, prior to the discovery of Australia, it was assumed that completely swans were white, because no one (wellno European at least) had ever seen a drear swan. However, they do exist. However, in the book, a contraband swan refers to any event that is rare, has an extreme impact, and is explainable and predictable - alone only in hindsight.Nassim Nicholas Taleb refers to the book variously as an seek or a narrative with one single idea: our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations it is Talebs oppugn of why this occurs and his explanations of it that drive the book forward.
The books layout follows a simple logical system moving from literary subjects in the beginning to scientific and mathematical subjects in the later portions. vox One and the beginning of Part Two delve into Psychology. Taleb addresses science and business in the last mentioned half of Part Two and Part Three. Part intravenous feeding contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of suspicion and still enjoy life. Taleb acknowledges a contradiction in the book.
He uses an exact metaphor, Black Swan Idea to argue against the unknown, the abstract, and inaccurate uncertain--white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti.
on that point is a contradiction; this book is a story, and I take to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the hard compression of narratives.
You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are in addition easier to remember and more fun to read.
In the first chapter, the black swan theory first is discussed in relation to Talebs approaching of age in the Levant. The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. One sees events go...If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com
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